Category Archives: 新闻

俄乌冲突环境下,应如何有效应对国际业务中的货币风险

美联储加息

美国正式开始其加息周期,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从近零水平上调25个基点至0.25%-0.5%。这也是美联储自2018年12月以来首次加息。根据最新发布的点阵图,16名决策者的预测中值显示,大部分决策者预计到今年年底联邦基金利率将至少升至1.875%,到2023年底时升至2.75%,并在2024年期间维持不变。这意味着今年将总共加息七次,每次25个基点,明年将再加息三至四次。

 

欧元贬值

由于俄乌冲突,欧元兑美元汇率在两周内下跌了4%。 欧元区2月份的年度通货膨胀率为5.8%,创历史新高,能源通货膨胀率为31%。通常,出口商很高兴看到欧元疲软,2% 的通胀目标几乎无法实现。 但由于俄乌冲突导致能源进口价格创历史新高,目前通胀率已超过5%。

 

ING 银行分析师并不认为欧元“被严重低估”,将欧元下跌归因于与美联储的加息预期不同,以及股市的大量资金外流。事实上,这很可能只是开始,而不是结束。由于俄乌冲突这个黑天鹅事件,欧元兑美元汇率跌破平价的风险正在增加。

 

商业机会

对于有国际业务的公司来说,这些汇率波动可能会产生严重影响。 尤其是中小企业,他们可能还没有准备好以最具性价比的方式提供必要的服务。因为许多中小企业与当地合作伙伴合作,而不是直接负责其海外销售。

 

汇率大幅波动是2022年贯穿全年的重要关注点,国际公司应优化运营以应对货币汇率波动,避免损失利润。选择最佳时机补充库存或推动销售会对进口商或出口商的收入产生巨大影响。

 

Dr2 Consultants Shanghai 可以帮助您在瞬息万变的环境中驾驭国际业务。 如有任何疑问,请随时通过 shanghai@dr2consultants.eu 与我们联系。

近期中国的跨境电商发展情况

自 2015 年起,中国设置了 105 个跨境电子商务(CBEC)试验区,由地方政府在通关、物流、支付、立法、税收等方面提供政策优惠。目标是提高外国公司对国际电商活动的积极性。经验证实这是一种推动该国际贸易增长的成功模式。

 

2021年,尽管疫情对国际业务带来了一些负面影响,但中国货物贸易总额首次突破6万亿欧元大关。今年年初,中国又设立了27个跨境电子商务(CBEC)试验区,以稳定外贸和投资。截至 3 月 1 日,29 个产品类别被添加到跨境电子商务零售进口正面清单中,包括滑雪和高尔夫设备等。 在促进贸易的同时,信息安全也越来越受到重视。

 

中国对跨境电商行业的不断优化将,为外国公司提供了更多机会。外国企业可以通过在线平台,使用不同电子商务模式进行贸易。无论公司的业务重点是传统的企业对企业 (B2B) 还是企业对消费者 (B2C)。在中国,许多市场通常是更加集成和复杂的企业对企业对消费者 (B2B2C) 结构,其中消费者对消费者 (C2C)、直接对消费者 (D2C) 以及制造商对消费者 (M2C) 都是必须考虑的常见变体模型。

 

中国的跨境电子商务(CBEC)市场主要建立在一些庞大的在线和社交市场之上,外国品牌可以在这些市场上线产品,有时甚至无需在中国建立实体公司。一下列举了一些成功的 CBEC 平台:

  • 天猫国际,来自科技巨头阿里巴巴的天猫国际是无可争议的第一,拥有 25% 的市场份额。自从他们收购了占有 17% 市场的考拉之后,其他方就很难竞争了。
  • 来自另一家科技巨头腾讯的京东环球也占有15%的市场份额。近年来,京东一直在探索在欧洲进行更多投资,与电子商务平台建立本地合作。
  • 小红书(小红书)的份额较小,仅为5%,但通过其特别受年轻一代欢迎的社交媒体模式,被认为具有很大的增长潜力。近年来,基于社交媒体模型的电商模型逐渐成为一种趋势。

 

市场上有许多平台可供选择,有时很难做出正确的战略选择。不同的平台可以在特定行业提供不同的优势。很多公司在这方面可以为企业提供帮助,但最终,在中国的扩张计划中需要有一个战略重点,这不仅需要资金方面的投资,还需要投入时间。了解中国市场后,再有效整合中国业务。在这个旅行受限制的时期,跨境电商是外国企业一个有趣的选择。要成功获取中国市场,在瞬息万变的中国市场中采用全渠道方法是必不可少的,其中也涉及到线下渠道的发掘。

 

如果您对与中国开展业务、跨境电商发展和趋势有任何疑问,请随时通过 shanghai@dr2consultants.eu 与我们联系。我们的顾问很乐意提供任何建议,以帮助您制定有关中国业务的战略决策。 请注意,本文内容也曾由李雄楚发表在荷兰电商杂志《Twinkle》上。

Wat overheden niet lukt, doet de groene energiesector in China en Europa allang

COP26 voorzitter Alok Sharma vocht zaterdag tegen de tranen. Na dagen van slopende en vaak emotionele onderhandelingen voelde hij zich genoodzaakt om de verandering die India op het allerlaatste moment voorstelde te accepteren: De slottekst waar alle 197 deelnemende landen zich aan committeren bevat nu een belofte om het gebruik van steenkool ‘terug te schroeven’. Voorafgaand aan de top in Glasgow had Sharma nu juist het volledig elimineren van steenkoolgebruik als belangrijke prioriteit benoemd. Het is slechts één van de voorbeelden van het gebrek aan ambitie en leiderschap dat prevaleerde tijdens COP26.

Verrassend proactief waren de V.S. en China, ‘s werelds grootste uitstoters van broeikasgassen, die een onderling akkoord uitbrachten om de uitstoot van methaan en het gebruik van steenkool nog dit decennium grondig aan te pakken. Joe Biden en Xi zijn momenteel via Zoom in gesprek om concrete invulling te geven aan de afspraken. Klimaatwatchers zijn echter bang dat de afgesproken maatregelen te vaag blijven. Als dit akkoord tot weinig ambitieuze implementatie leidt, heeft dat desastreuze gevolgen voor de rest van de wereld. Zelfs onze relatief progressieve Europese Unie zal dan niet meer voortrekkersrol op zich willen nemen uit angst voor verplaatsing van onze – toch al noodlijdende – maakeconomie en bijbehorende banen.

De deal tussen de Verenigde Staten en China kwam uit de lucht vallen. Althans, zo leek het voor de rest van de wereld. Frans Timmermans vertelde voor de camera’s dat hij ‘al dagen op de hoogte’ was en het akkoord van harte ondersteunt. Maar Europa was niet aan tafel uitgenodigd voor de meer dan 30-tal gesprekken die in de afgelopen 10 maanden over het akkoord tussen China en de V.S. hebben plaatsgevonden. En daar hebben we een enorme kans laten liggen om de andere grootmachten te dwingen tot ambitie. Laten we er nu dan ook alles aan doen om alsnog een ‘seat at the table’ te krijgen als het gaat om implementatie van de plannen.

Daarbij zal de rol van de groene energiesector cruciaal blijken. Want de moeizame internationale onderhandelingen lopen ver achter bij de praktijk. Waar overheden decennia lang dezelfde onderhandelingen voeren om uiteindelijk waterige akkoorden te bereiken over hoog-over doelstellingen, en waarbij Europa nu wordt buitengesloten door de V.S. en China, werken bedrijven in Europa en China al die jaren al gestaag door om innovatieve oplossingen voor de energietransitie te ontwikkelen. Al decennia lang overbruggen werknemers van energiebedrijven aan beide kanten van de oceaan samen culturele, sociale, geografische en economische geschillen om groene groei te bewerkstelligen.

Succesverhalen zijn er: Zo installeerde het Nederlandse SPT Offshore vorig jaar met een Chinese ontwikkelaar de funderingen voor een 300MW windpark in de Zuid-Chinese zee. Het Franse Air Liquide leverde de technologie voor het grootste hydrogen station ter wereld dat staat in – Beijing. Deze projecten zijn ontstaan door het jarenlang opbouwen van menselijke relaties en vertrouwen. Ondanks onzekere clausules in handelsakkoorden en zorgen om markttoegang en patentbescherming weten deze bedrijven de groene business case te vinden. Deze business case bestaat ondanks – en niet bij gratie van – ingewikkelde politieke onderhandelingen.

Internationaal beleid heeft zeker nog een functie in het creëren van een gelijk speelveld op socio-economisch niveau. De landen die het hardst getroffen worden door klimaatverandering moeten hiervoor gecompenseerd worden. Maar ook dat gaat makkelijker als de huidige grootvervuilers daadwerkelijk geld kunnen verdienen aan groene energie. Waarom zaten de groene energiebedrijven niet aan tafel in Glasgow?

Een pragmatische aanpak die succesvolle private initiatieven volgt en schaalbaar maakt is de sleutel tot concrete oplossingen. Europese en Chinese werknemers kijken al voorbij politieke en culturele geschillen. Laat onze overheden daar van leren. Creëer een wereldwijde business case vanuit bilaterale successen, en maak bilaterale afspraken om handelsbelemmeringen op te heffen. Laat de internationale afspraken de redelijke praktijk volgen. En betrek de groene economie nou eens écht richting COP27.

 

Auteurs:

Stefanie Ros, partner en directeur, Dr2 Consultants Shanghai (woonachtig in New York)

Li-Xiong Chu, senior adviseur, Dr2 Consultants Shanghai (woonachtig in Shanghai)

Tiffany Zhang, adviseur, Dr2 Consultants Shanghai (woonachtig in Shanghai)

 

Achtergrond:

De auteurs werken voor Dr2 Consultants (NL: Dröge & van Drimmelen), een internationaal public affairs bureau met kantoren in Shanghai, New York, Brussel, Kopenhagen en Den Haag dat bedrijven en overheden samenbrengt om de weg naar een duurzame en toekomstbestendige internationale economie te versnellen.

Voorafgaand aan de klimaattop in Glasgow interviewde het wereldwijde Dr2 Consultants netwerk experts die actief zijn op de energietransitie tussen de EU en China. Eén van de vier hoofdconclusies van het onderzoek is dat internationaal beleid de huidige realiteit onvoldoende weerspiegelt, omdat internationale samenwerking in de energietransitie voornamelijk wordt geleid door de private sector en zowel pragmatischer als innovatiever is dan de afspraken die gemaakt worden op fora als COP26.

 

https://dr2.nl/trendrapport-2021-energietransitie-public-affairs/

 

Contact:

Stefanie Ros, s.ros@dr2consultants.eu, +1 646 691 8935

A global business case for the energy transition through public affairs

For its annual trend report, this year the Dr2 Consultants network conducted interviews with experts to examine public affairs in the energy transition between China and the EU. For the publication, a short video has been made that can be viewed here.

The general conclusion is clear: Governments need to create a global business case so that civil society can truly reap the benefits of international cooperation. Public affairs is an important tool in this.

Trends

Contrary to the current course of international policy, our research found that creating a level playing field does not start with high-level multilateral agreements. The pragmatic approach of the private sector in China and the EU has resulted in successful bilateral cooperation, which can serve as a model for better international policy.

Four trends were discovered in the interviews:

First, governments can learn from each other. Finding the right combination between policy strengths from China and the EU may accelerate the international energy transition. Important in this is that the private sector has a prominent place for input in government-to-government discussions. Zhonghua Xu from TotalEnergies Asia confirms from practical experience that Chinese people are big risk-takers, (….) eager to test ideas on a large scale into the market. On the other hand, Europe is really good in taking initiative. So working together, we can achieve the carbon-neutral mark.

Second, international policy does not reflect current reality. Flora Kan of the EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform describes that international cooperation in the energy transition is predominantly led by the private sector and is often more pragmatic and innovative. Companies that have boots on the ground in multiple countries already engage in cooperation which bridges differences and addresses the local issues at hand. Whereas multilateral discussions over binding agreements are very time-consuming, and we are only nine years away from the 2030 targets.

Third, civil society needs governments to create a global business case. The foundation of successful international collaboration, especially in the energy transition, is trust. Without tackling unequal competition and socio-economic differences this trust will be difficult to build up. Only a global level playing field can ensure that no one stays left behind and that companies can compete on an equal level. Highlighted by Ulco Vermeulen at Gasunie; we can’t do much about natural conditions, but we can do something about the global market. If you can organize together, everyone benefits.

And fourth, public affairs is bridging the world! Innovation cannot thrive without the people facilitating international cooperation. Simon Lemin of TÜVSÜD China mentions that private companies need to get involved in international organizations so that they can steer policy and standards. As mentioned by Christof van Agt of the International Energy Forum, people-to-people diplomacy is excruciatingly important to ensure the transmission of ideas and inspiration and to overcome cultural differences.  

The “Annual Trend Report 2021, The Energy Transition in China and the EU” can be downloaded for free here: Dr2 Trend Report 2021 – The Energy Transition in China and the EU

Frans van Drimmelen, founder and CEO of Dr2 Consultants: “Every year, our international team researches an important development in the field of public affairs. This time we have chosen to focus on the energy transition, as we see that civil society is eager for deeper cooperation with governments to achieve workable solutions. Dr2 hopes to contribute to increased and more efficient international policy dialogues through the content of this report.”

The Annual Trend Report 2021 includes interviews with high-level representatives from amongst others the International Energy Forum (IEF), EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform (ECECP), TotalEnergies, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), TÜV SÜD, Gasunie, Dutch National Hydrogen Platform, and the Province of South Holland.

About the Dr2 Consultants network

Dr2 Consultants is a strategic consultancy network that operates at the intersection of corporate communication and public affairs, with offices in The Hague (Dröge & van Drimmelen), Brussels, Copenhagen, New York and Shanghai. We advise public and private institutions all over the world on how to acquire social and political support for their issues. All offices within the Dr2 network facilitate public-private cooperation in the energy transition and related areas; clean energy, CCU, (food-)waste management, etc.

If you would like to know more, please contact us at shanghai@dr2consultants.eu.

Scammers are Winning: € 41.3 ($ 47.8) Billion lost in Scams, up 15%

The number of reported scams increased from 139 million in 2019 to 266 million in 2020. The amount lost grew from € 36 ($ 41.7) to € 41 billion ($ 47.8).

With the COVID-19 pandemic, the scam industry has boomed worldwide. In ’s 3rd Global State of Scams Report, for which we at Dr2 Consultants Shanghai also contributed, 42 countries were analyzed on the number of people scammed and the amount of money lost.

Although definitions and reporting methods used by different countries for scams differ strongly, nearly all countries have reported large increases in the number of reported scams. Also, it seems that with the “zero-interest” economy, many proved to be willing victims to “investment opportunities”. These particular scams are also called ‘pig butchering and can run for longer periods of time such as 3, 6 or even 12 months.

In order to combat scams effectively, many countries have resorted to more aggressive awareness campaigns.  But as the themes of the scam usually change (e.g. pet scams, COVID grants), citizens worldwide still seem to fall for them, despite these earlier warnings. The World Economic Forum estimates that a mere 0.05% of all cybercriminals are eventually prosecuted. This makes online scamming, which is even more underreported than “big cybercrimes”, a very lucrative business.

The full report will be presented at the Global Online Scam Summit and can be downloaded from ScamAdviser.com. Or you can contact us through shanghai@dr2consultants.eu for more details.

Dr2 White-paper: ‘Time to enter Chinese cosmetics market WITHOUT ANIMAL TESTING’

In the past few months, China has been updating its cosmetics regulations, which brings great opportunities for foreign brands that have been blocked by previous complicated regulations. Dr2 Consultants Shanghai presents the key takeaways in this white paper for cosmetic brands who would like to enter the Chinese market without animal testing.

What you should know before entering the Chinese market

  1. How are cosmetics products classified in China?
  2. What are the dossiers necessary for cosmetic registration/recordation?
  3. What are the requirements of cosmetics labeling?
  4. How to avoid animal testing?
  • Option 1: Cross-border e-commerce
  • Option 2: Do the filling in China
  • Option 3: Animal testing exemptions

 

Interested? Contact shanghai@dr2consultants.eu for a free copy!

Helping China’s food waste problem

Through the rapid growth and urbanization rate, the amounts of waste are increasingly growing in China. First steps in the classification and sorting of municipal solid waste have been initiated in recent years. This has provided more insights into the troubling situation regarding food waste. Different research indicated that Chinese cities waste 17 to 18 million tonnes of food annually which is enough to feed 30 – 50 million people for a year.

To illustrate, in Shanghai food waste has increased by 27.5% in recent years, which is mainly generated by the catering sector. And even though Shanghai is the first urban city to implement strict sorting policies, there are challenges to overcome. Firstly, insufficient treatment capacity, it is estimated that Shanghai produces more than 9.000 tonnes of food waste daily but the treatment capacity can only handle 5.000 tonnes. Secondly, because of the insufficient quality composition of sorted food waste, using it for composting for example becomes more difficult.

As the priority for China is to become more self-sufficient, dealing with the food waste problem in a sustainable way is key to decrease the immense amounts of food imports for example. A transition to prevention will become increasingly important. The coming years will see more investments in experimenting with new valorization techniques. Finding more efficient and effective ways for the collection & sorting systems, finding new ways to reuse outputs from the existing treatment facilities back into the food chain but also creating new solutions that can deal with the urban-rural context.

Together with colleagues from our headquarters in the Netherlands, Dröge & van Drimmelen, our partners, New Economy, and Acclime, we are working together with the Netherlands Enterprise Agency and the Consulate General of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Shanghai, conducting a market study for business opportunities of Dutch enterprises within the Yangtze River Delta. The study is currently being finalized and scheduled to be published in July 2021.

Please contact us at shanghai@dr2consultants.eu if you are interested in knowing more or if you are in relevant food waste fields and would like to be updated and involved in future events regarding combating food waste in China.

Dr2 White-paper: ‘The Rise of Live Commerce in China, how will the West follow?’

Digital developments go with the speed of light in China. In this whitepaper, Dr2 Consultants Shanghai outlines the do’s and don’ts for retailers that want to jump on board with the latest trend in e-commerce: Live commerce.

live-commerce

What is live commerce?

Live Commerce = E-commerce + Live Streaming

The live-streaming industry has developed very quickly in China over recent years. It has influenced the further professionalization of the e-commerce industry with;

– new innovations,
– instant consumer engagement,
– platform integrations, and
– changing regulations.

This paper brings insight on the opportunities live-streaming can create in an integrated e-commerce strategy.

Interested? Contact shanghai@dr2consultants.eu for a free copy!

 

 

 

 

 

绿色世界中的电子商务

作者:Bernard Scheffens

随着新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,当今世界对商品和服务的数字化需求激增。这是意料之中的。电子商务已经发展得非常成熟,结合了线上订购和线下送货,十分方便!

然而,在2018年初,中国的政府已经预见到了这样的问题:如何处理包装废弃物?如何生产更具可持续性的包装产品,以减少浪费,减少使用树木等自然资源,毕竟我们还需要使用它们来生产纸张、碳纤维板等。

这是一个巨大的难题。2018年,中国每天使用超过1.3亿个包装,其中大约50%的包装是碳纤维板材质。这个数字还在继续上升当中,香港地区的数据也同样在增长。

解决措施

目前,应对包装浪费问题的相关措施已经开始实施。各公司签署了相关协议,各级政府也参与其中,各尽其能。与此同时,使用“循环经济协议”包装法也融入了这项工作,尽管可用的实现方法并没有很多。

参见下图:Dröge&Van Drimmelen / Dr2设计,荷兰/上海

上图展示了一个使所有参与者都受益的项目及过程,包括政府、电子商务公司、包装制造商、运输公司等。这表明这些事情是可行的。

 

各方利益权衡

各方都有自己的考虑。 政府起到一个统筹作用,从整体的角度考虑如何减少浪费,减少自然资源的使用。电子商务公司想要寻找降低成本的方法。在减少使用的包装数量后,包装价格会上涨,包装制造商想要知道如何成为这部分企业。运输公司有可能被要求退回包裹,该如何处理?

每一方都有各自的利益。政府希望对这将如何减少浪费,减少或不使用自然资源有一个总体的了解。电子商务公司对于找到可以降低成本的方法非常感兴趣。包装制造商热衷于了解这些内容以及时应对,从而保持业务,因为包装使用数量将减少,但其价格会上升。运输公司将负责退还包裹,这又将如何实现呢?

政府的作用在于:整个过程需要一个公平的竞争环境,而只有政府才能通过法律,法规和执法提供这样的竞争环境。这可以防止企业只专注于自己的利益,并且建立起多个不同的体系,创造出一个不可或缺的行业。同时,这也可以为他们提供数据以监视整个过程。

如果可以使用更便宜的包装方式,电子商务公司当然也希望获得竞争优势。这里有一个理论上的例子:假设一个标准的碳纤维板包装的价格为10港币,一个更具可持续性的包装可能要花费100港币,但如果可以使用20次,后者的价格仅为5港币。当然,我们需要更严谨地审视为解决这一难题做出的各种努力,开创一个涉及多方利益的可持续商业案例。目前的一些早期迹象告诉我们,这些努力都是值得的,并且我们未来一定能够做到。

运输公司需要一个在返还包装渠道的解决方案。一旦确定了包装的所有者(通过数据管理实现),包装就可以被返还并重新使用。

 

想要了解更多循环经济的相关动态吗?如何将您的业务与循环经济相结合?请不要犹豫,联系我们吧!我们的邮箱是:shanghai@dr2consultants.eu

中国“报复性旅游”促进经济复苏

本月初,中国各地的旅游景点挤满了人,数百万当地人和游客庆祝黄金周71周年——涵盖中秋节和国庆节的八天公共假日。

中国文化和旅游部预计将有6亿国内游客(约占全国总人口的40%)在新冠病毒仍存期间旅行。虽然与去年近8亿游客相比,这一数字可能有所下降,但在全球旅游预计数年不会反弹的时代,这仍然是一个惊人的数字。

中国国庆节是为了纪念中国共产党在赢得中国内战后于1949年10月1日成立中华人民共和国。 如今,中国的国庆节被连续几天的全国性假日所定义,也被称为“黄金周”。这个名字是因为它处于秋天的开始,而此时中国的大多数地区都被认为有着全年最好的天气。

虽然世界其他地区仍在与致命的冠状病毒流行作斗争,并正在阻止不必要的旅行,但中国社交媒体的图片显示,一周内成千上万的游客自由地在国内旅行-这一最新迹象表明,在第一次疫情爆发后的八个月以来,中国的生活几乎已经从严重的隔离中恢复正常。与2020年的前几个月相比,中国农历新年期间,中国今年最大的旅游季节被缩短,以防止病毒的进一步传播。

由于冠状病毒目前仍在西方和亚洲其他地区肆虐,在这个黄金周,中国人几乎没有选择海外假期,许多人选择国内旅行。游客通常会这样做的原因是,他们不愿意承担他们在旅行的两端地点所需的漫长检疫时间。 旅客中最受欢迎的一些目的地诸如泰国、日本、越南,他们关闭了国际商业航班的机场,至今尚未完全重新开放。

自8月以来,中国已有报道,称当地传播的冠状病毒病例变少使得地方政府放宽对日常生活的限制,并允许旅游地点以75%的容量运营。为了鼓励当地景点的旅游,全国500多个景点为游客提供免费门票或折扣。公民们带着洗手液、护面罩、口罩,做好体温检查和保持社交距离,走遍全国,与朋友和家人一起庆祝黄金周假期。

中国旅游业的反弹无法掩盖疫情所导致的贫富差距不断扩大的现象。 由于缺乏财政援助,中国最贫穷的人群比那些更富有的同代人们生活情况更加困难。一年中的头三个月收入不到5万元的最贫穷的家庭们,是生活水平下降最大的群体之一。

尽管如此,中国仍然决心完成今年打赢脱贫攻坚战的任务。中国国家主席习近平在讲话时强调了国家打赢脱贫攻坚战的毅力和决心。

习近平主席呼吁通过教育提高不发达地区和农村地区低收入人口的发展能力,鼓励那些有能力,并通过辛勤工作实现富裕的低收入人群,并促进逐步实现共同繁荣。